Probabilistic seismic hazard and risk assessment in Spain

This work attempts to explain how probabilistic seismic risk assessments can be performed at different resolution levels, using, strictly speaking, the same methodology (or arithmetic) and, then, how to obtain results in terms of the same metrics; but, also, highlighting what the differences in terms of inputs for the analysis and the reasons for them (i.e. including the dynamic soil response effects which are only relevant in local assessments) are. First, a country level assessment is first performed with similarities to the presented by Cardona et al. (2014) using a coarsegrain exposure database that includes only the building stock in the urban regions of Spain. Second, a urban seismic risk assessment with the detail of state-of-the-art studies such as the ones developed by Marulanda et al. (2013) and Salgado-Gálvez et al (2013; 2014a) is performed for Lorca, Murcia. In both cases, the fully probabilistic seismic risk results are expressed in terms of the loss exceedance curve which corresponds to the main output of said analysis from where different probabilistic risk metrics, such as the average annual loss and the probable maximum loss, as well as several other relationships, can be derived (Marulanda et al., 2008; Bernal, 2014). Because of the damage data availability for the Lorca May 2011 earthquake, a comparison between the observed losses and those modelled using an earthquake scenario with similar characteristics in terms of location, magnitude and spectral accelerations was done for the building stock of the city. The results of the comparison are presented in terms of expected losses (in monetary terms) and damage levels related to the obtained the mean damage ratios compared with the observed by post-earthquake surveys.